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Will it freeze in Fair Oaks Ranch in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Fair Oaks Ranch during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 51°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 51°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 50°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 49°F Above 36°F · Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 46°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 47°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 48°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 50°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Fair Oaks Ranch
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 27, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Boerne. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 9 · Apr 1 · Apr 22 | Oct 21 · Nov 4 · Nov 21 | 218 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 23 · Mar 15 · Apr 8 | Oct 31 · Nov 13 · Dec 4 | 243 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Jan 31 · Mar 2 · Mar 23 | Nov 5 · Nov 27 · Dec 21 | 270 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Boerne
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Fair Oaks Ranch, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Boerne (station USC00410902, elevation 1,445 ft), 6.8 mi from Fair Oaks Ranch. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Fair Oaks Ranch
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boerne, TX | 6.2 mi | Mar 15 | Nov 13 |
| Helotes, TX | 12 mi | Feb 18 | Dec 9 |
| Bulverde, TX | 12 mi | Mar 1 | Dec 1 |
| Leon Valley, TX | 17 mi | Feb 18 | Dec 9 |
| San Antonio, TX | 21 mi | Feb 25 | Nov 28 |
| Alamo Heights, TX | 21 mi | Feb 25 | Nov 28 |
| Terrell Hills, TX | 22 mi | Feb 25 | Nov 28 |
| Windcrest, TX | 22 mi | Feb 25 | Nov 28 |
| Live Oak, TX | 22 mi | Feb 21 | Dec 5 |
| Selma, TX | 22 mi | Feb 21 | Dec 5 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Fair Oaks Ranch?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Fair Oaks Ranch is around March 15. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 8, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 23.
When is the first frost in Fair Oaks Ranch?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 13. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 31 and a 90% chance by December 4.
Can it frost in Fair Oaks Ranch after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 1.
What growing zone is Fair Oaks Ranch?
Fair Oaks Ranch is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 15 to 20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 78015. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze