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Will it freeze in Elsa in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Elsa during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 70°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 70°F Above 36°F · Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
- Fri, Nov 6 65°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Chance Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 64°F Above 36°F · Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 58°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 57°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Tue, Nov 10 60°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 62°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Elsa
Most years have no 28°F hard freeze at Santa Rosa 3 Wnw, according to NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals. Check the short-term forecast above during cold snaps.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Dec 28 · Feb 3 · Mar 8 | Nov 22 · Dec 12 · Jan 12 | 316 days |
| 32°F freeze | Dec 13 · Jan 10 · Feb 24 | Dec 3 · Dec 27 · Feb 1 | 355 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 11 · Jan 1 · Feb 1 | Dec 8 · Dec 29 · Jan 24 | 365 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Santa Rosa 3 Wnw
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Elsa, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Santa Rosa 3 Wnw (station USC00418059, elevation 50 ft), 7.9 mi from Elsa. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Elsa
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weslaco, TX | 9.3 mi | rare | rare |
| Donna, TX | 9.9 mi | rare | rare |
| Edinburg, TX | 9.9 mi | rare | rare |
| Mercedes, TX | 11 mi | rare | rare |
| Alamo, TX | 11 mi | rare | rare |
| San Juan, TX | 12 mi | rare | rare |
| Progreso, TX | 14 mi | rare | rare |
| La Feria, TX | 14 mi | Jan 10 | Dec 27 |
| Pharr, TX | 16 mi | rare | rare |
| Primera, TX | 16 mi | rare | rare |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Elsa?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Elsa is around January 10. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after February 24, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after December 13.
When is the first frost in Elsa?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 27. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by December 3 and a 90% chance by February 1.
Can it frost in Elsa after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after February 3.
What growing zone is Elsa?
Elsa is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 10a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 30 to 35°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 78543. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze