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Will it freeze in Bristol in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Bristol during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 50°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 50°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 33°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Bristol
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Bristol Tri City Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 14 · Apr 29 · May 17 | Oct 4 · Oct 15 · Oct 28 | 169 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 30 · Apr 16 · May 5 | Oct 11 · Oct 24 · Nov 4 | 190 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 16 · Apr 1 · Apr 18 | Oct 19 · Nov 1 · Nov 15 | 212 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Bristol Tri City Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Bristol, TN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Bristol Tri City Airport (station USW00013877, elevation 1,500 ft), 12 mi from Bristol. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Bristol
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol, VA | 5.0 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 20 |
| Elizabethton, TN | 15 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 24 |
| Abingdon, VA | 17 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 20 |
| Johnson City, TN | 17 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 24 |
| Kingsport, TN | 18 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 29 |
| Jonesborough, TN | 23 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 23 |
| Mount Carmel, TN | 25 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 29 |
| Church Hill, TN | 28 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 29 |
| Erwin, TN | 30 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 23 |
| Big Stone Gap, VA | 37 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 23 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Bristol?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Bristol is around April 16. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 5, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 30.
When is the first frost in Bristol?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 24. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 11 and a 90% chance by November 4.
Can it frost in Bristol after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 29.
What growing zone is Bristol?
Bristol is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 24201. See growing zones in Tennessee.
More: all Tennessee frost dates · Tennessee growing zones · UV index today in Bristol · frost vs. freeze