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Will it freeze in Johnson City in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 32°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM EST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 50°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 50°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Johnson City
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Elizabethton. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 15 · Apr 30 · May 17 | Oct 4 · Oct 16 · Oct 29 | 166 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 2 · Apr 19 · May 7 | Oct 10 · Oct 24 · Nov 5 | 187 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 20 · Apr 5 · Apr 23 | Oct 19 · Nov 1 · Nov 15 | 209 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Elizabethton
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Johnson City, TN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Elizabethton (station USC00402806, elevation 1,487 ft), 7.4 mi from Johnson City. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Johnson City
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonesborough, TN | 6.2 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 23 |
| Elizabethton, TN | 8.1 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 24 |
| Erwin, TN | 14 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 23 |
| Kingsport, TN | 15 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 29 |
| Bristol, TN | 17 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 24 |
| Mount Carmel, TN | 22 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 29 |
| Church Hill, TN | 22 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 29 |
| Bristol, VA | 22 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 20 |
| Greeneville, TN | 27 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 22 |
| Abingdon, VA | 34 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 20 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Johnson City?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Johnson City is around April 19. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 7, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 2.
When is the first frost in Johnson City?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 24. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 10 and a 90% chance by November 5.
Can it frost in Johnson City after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 30.
What growing zone is Johnson City?
Johnson City is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 5 to 10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 37614. See growing zones in Tennessee.
More: all Tennessee frost dates · Tennessee growing zones · UV index today in Johnson City · frost vs. freeze