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Will it freeze in Atoka in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Atoka during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 46°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 46°F Above 36°F · Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 34°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 34°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Atoka
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 16, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Covington 3 SW. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 22 · Apr 7 · Apr 26 | Oct 15 · Oct 26 · Nov 6 | 200 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 8 · Mar 27 · Apr 11 | Oct 23 · Nov 4 · Nov 21 | 222 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 26 · Mar 14 · Apr 2 | Nov 1 · Nov 16 · Dec 6 | 248 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Covington 3 SW
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Atoka, TN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Covington 3 SW (station USC00402108, elevation 385 ft), 9.8 mi from Atoka. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Atoka
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Munford, TN | 1.9 mi | Mar 27 | Nov 4 |
| Millington, TN | 9.3 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
| Lakeland, TN | 12 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
| Covington, TN | 12 mi | Mar 27 | Nov 4 |
| Bartlett, TN | 14 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
| Arlington, TN | 14 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
| Oakland, TN | 20 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 3 |
| Osceola, AR | 22 mi | Mar 23 | Nov 6 |
| Germantown, TN | 24 mi | Mar 22 | Nov 7 |
| Memphis, TN | 24 mi | Mar 16 | Nov 16 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Atoka?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Atoka is around March 27. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 11, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 8.
When is the first frost in Atoka?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 4. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 23 and a 90% chance by November 21.
Can it frost in Atoka after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 7.
What growing zone is Atoka?
Atoka is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 10 to 15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 38004. See growing zones in Tennessee.
More: all Tennessee frost dates · Tennessee growing zones · frost vs. freeze