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Will it freeze in Box Elder in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 32°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST).
Tonight: forecast low 32°F. Freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 43°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 40°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Box Elder
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 9, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Rapid City Regional Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 10 · May 22 · Jun 6 | Sep 7 · Sep 21 · Oct 3 | 121 days |
| 32°F freeze | May 1 · May 12 · May 26 | Sep 16 · Oct 1 · Oct 14 | 139 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 18 · May 2 · May 14 | Sep 26 · Oct 9 · Oct 23 | 159 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Rapid City Regional Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Box Elder, SD come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Rapid City Regional Airport (station USW00024090, elevation 3,160 ft), 4.8 mi from Box Elder. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Box Elder
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid City, SD | 7.5 mi | May 3 | Oct 8 |
| Sturgis, SD | 29 mi | May 8 | Oct 3 |
| Spearfish, SD | 45 mi | May 12 | Oct 2 |
| Belle Fourche, SD | 54 mi | May 10 | Sep 30 |
| Gillette, WY | 121 mi | May 15 | Oct 1 |
| Pierre, SD | 138 mi | May 6 | Oct 3 |
| Alliance, NE | 139 mi | May 11 | Oct 3 |
| Douglas, WY | 149 mi | May 19 | Sep 23 |
| Torrington, WY | 152 mi | May 11 | Sep 29 |
| Scottsbluff, NE | 158 mi | May 8 | Oct 3 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Box Elder?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Box Elder is around May 12. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 26, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after May 1.
When is the first frost in Box Elder?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 1. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 16 and a 90% chance by October 14.
Can it frost in Box Elder after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 22.
What growing zone is Box Elder?
Box Elder is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −15 to −10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 57706. See growing zones in South Dakota.
More: all South Dakota frost dates · South Dakota growing zones · frost vs. freeze