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Will it freeze in New Castle in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sun, Nov 8: 32°F (Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 PM EST to Mon, Nov 9, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 45°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
6 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 35°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain
- Sat, Nov 7 34°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain then Mostly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 32°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 32°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 31°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in New Castle
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 2, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at New Castle 1 N. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 26 · May 11 · May 27 | Sep 28 · Oct 9 · Oct 23 | 151 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 17 · Apr 30 · May 19 | Oct 6 · Oct 23 · Nov 4 | 175 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 6 · Apr 20 · May 6 | Oct 20 · Nov 2 · Nov 15 | 198 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at New Castle 1 N
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for New Castle, PA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: New Castle 1 N (station USC00366233, elevation 825 ft), 1.7 mi from New Castle. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near New Castle
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ellwood City, PA | 9.9 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 25 |
| Struthers, OH | 14 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 23 |
| Campbell, OH | 14 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 23 |
| Hubbard, OH | 16 mi | May 1 | Oct 17 |
| Beaver Falls, PA | 16 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 25 |
| Hermitage, PA | 17 mi | May 15 | Oct 3 |
| Youngstown, OH | 17 mi | May 1 | Oct 17 |
| Grove City, PA | 17 mi | May 7 | Oct 14 |
| New Brighton, PA | 18 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 25 |
| Sharon, PA | 18 mi | May 1 | Oct 17 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in New Castle?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in New Castle is around April 30. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 19, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 17.
When is the first frost in New Castle?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 23. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 6 and a 90% chance by November 4.
Can it frost in New Castle after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 11.
What growing zone is New Castle?
New Castle is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 16101. See growing zones in Pennsylvania.
More: all Pennsylvania frost dates · Pennsylvania growing zones · frost vs. freeze