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Will it freeze in Ellwood City in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sun, Nov 8: 32°F (Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 PM EST to Mon, Nov 9, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 45°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
6 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 45°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 36°F Frost possible · Chance Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 34°F Frost possible · Light Rain Likely then Mostly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 32°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Ellwood City
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 5, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Beaver Falls 1 NE. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 23 · May 9 · May 26 | Sep 28 · Oct 12 · Oct 28 | 153 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 15 · Apr 27 · May 16 | Oct 7 · Oct 25 · Nov 7 | 178 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 1 · Apr 17 · May 4 | Oct 23 · Nov 5 · Nov 18 | 201 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Beaver Falls 1 NE
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Ellwood City, PA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Beaver Falls 1 NE (station USC00360475, elevation 760 ft), 7.0 mi from Ellwood City. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Ellwood City
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beaver Falls, PA | 7.5 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 25 |
| New Brighton, PA | 8.7 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 25 |
| New Castle, PA | 9.9 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 23 |
| Monaca, PA | 12 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 25 |
| Economy, PA | 16 mi | Apr 8 | Nov 8 |
| Aliquippa, PA | 17 mi | Apr 8 | Nov 8 |
| Ambridge, PA | 19 mi | Apr 8 | Nov 8 |
| Columbiana, OH | 20 mi | May 2 | Oct 13 |
| Butler, PA | 21 mi | May 7 | Oct 14 |
| Struthers, OH | 21 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 23 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Ellwood City?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Ellwood City is around April 27. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 16, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 15.
When is the first frost in Ellwood City?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 25. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 7 and a 90% chance by November 7.
Can it frost in Ellwood City after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 9.
What growing zone is Ellwood City?
Ellwood City is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 16117. See growing zones in Pennsylvania.
More: all Pennsylvania frost dates · Pennsylvania growing zones · frost vs. freeze