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Will it freeze in Ashtabula in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Ashtabula during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 44°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
3 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 44°F Above 36°F · Chance Light Rain
- Fri, Nov 6 36°F Frost possible · Light Rain
- Sat, Nov 7 36°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Light Rain
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Ashtabula
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 3, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Ashtabula County Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 28 · May 14 · May 30 | Sep 25 · Oct 7 · Oct 24 | 145 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 18 · May 2 · May 20 | Oct 4 · Oct 21 · Nov 5 | 171 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 5 · Apr 21 · May 6 | Oct 18 · Nov 3 · Nov 19 | 198 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Ashtabula County Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Ashtabula, OH come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Ashtabula County Airport (station USW00004857, elevation 924 ft), 8.8 mi from Ashtabula. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Ashtabula
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geneva, OH | 9.3 mi | May 2 | Oct 21 |
| Conneaut, OH | 12 mi | May 8 | Oct 16 |
| Painesville, OH | 26 mi | Apr 15 | Nov 9 |
| Chardon, OH | 30 mi | May 5 | Oct 18 |
| Mentor, OH | 30 mi | Apr 15 | Nov 9 |
| Mentor-on-the-Lake, OH | 31 mi | Apr 15 | Nov 9 |
| Kirtland, OH | 34 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 31 |
| Edinboro, PA | 35 mi | May 7 | Oct 10 |
| Willoughby, OH | 35 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 31 |
| Eastlake, OH | 36 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 31 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Ashtabula?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Ashtabula is around May 2. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 20, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 18.
When is the first frost in Ashtabula?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 21. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 4 and a 90% chance by November 5.
Can it frost in Ashtabula after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 14.
What growing zone is Ashtabula?
Ashtabula is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 44004. See growing zones in Ohio.
More: all Ohio frost dates · Ohio growing zones · frost vs. freeze