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Will it freeze in Tucumcari in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Tucumcari during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 37°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 43°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 44°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 44°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Tucumcari
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 4, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Tucumcari 4 NE. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 15 · Apr 29 · May 11 | Oct 2 · Oct 17 · Oct 27 | 170 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 2 · Apr 18 · May 2 | Oct 11 · Oct 25 · Nov 6 | 189 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 17 · Apr 4 · Apr 22 | Oct 22 · Nov 4 · Nov 16 | 212 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Tucumcari 4 NE
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Tucumcari, NM come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Tucumcari 4 NE (station USC00299156, elevation 4,086 ft), 2.4 mi from Tucumcari. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Tucumcari
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clovis, NM | 58 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 29 |
| Portales, NM | 71 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 26 |
| Hereford, TX | 78 mi | Apr 17 | Oct 25 |
| Muleshoe, TX | 86 mi | Apr 22 | Oct 20 |
| Las Vegas, NM | 90 mi | May 24 | Sep 30 |
| Dalhart, TX | 91 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 20 |
| Canyon, TX | 102 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 25 |
| Amarillo, TX | 106 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 29 |
| Dumas, TX | 109 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 24 |
| Littlefield, TX | 116 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 26 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Tucumcari?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Tucumcari is around April 18. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 2, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 2.
When is the first frost in Tucumcari?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 25. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 11 and a 90% chance by November 6.
Can it frost in Tucumcari after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 29.
What growing zone is Tucumcari?
Tucumcari is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 88401. See growing zones in New Mexico.
More: all New Mexico frost dates · New Mexico growing zones · frost vs. freeze