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Will it freeze in Aztec in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Aztec during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 40°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
1 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 37°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Aztec
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 15, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Aztec Ruins Nm. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 11 · May 27 · Jun 11 | Sep 17 · Sep 30 · Oct 10 | 124 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 29 · May 12 · May 30 | Sep 24 · Oct 6 · Oct 19 | 147 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 16 · Apr 30 · May 12 | Oct 1 · Oct 15 · Oct 29 | 167 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Aztec Ruins Nm
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Aztec, NM come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Aztec Ruins Nm (station USC00290692, elevation 5,644 ft), 2.1 mi from Aztec. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Aztec
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomfield, NM | 5.0 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 19 |
| Farmington, NM | 12 mi | May 2 | Oct 13 |
| Durango, CO | 32 mi | May 21 | Oct 2 |
| Cortez, CO | 50 mi | May 12 | Oct 7 |
| Gallup, NM | 100 mi | May 11 | Oct 7 |
| Montrose, CO | 114 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 14 |
| Grants, NM | 115 mi | May 17 | Oct 3 |
| Española, NM | 120 mi | May 11 | Oct 6 |
| Alamosa, CO | 124 mi | May 30 | Sep 17 |
| Rio Rancho, NM | 127 mi | Apr 8 | Nov 1 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Aztec?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Aztec is around May 12. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 30, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 29.
When is the first frost in Aztec?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 6. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 24 and a 90% chance by October 19.
Can it frost in Aztec after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 27.
What growing zone is Aztec?
Aztec is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 87410. See growing zones in New Mexico.
More: all New Mexico frost dates · New Mexico growing zones · frost vs. freeze