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Will it freeze in Madison in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Wed, Nov 11: 32°F (Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 PM EST to Thu, Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 61°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 61°F Above 36°F · Light Rain
- Fri, Nov 6 49°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 41°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 32°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Madison
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 6, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Canoe Brook. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 17 · Apr 30 · May 17 | Oct 2 · Oct 15 · Oct 31 | 166 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 3 · Apr 18 · May 6 | Oct 11 · Oct 27 · Nov 10 | 189 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 19 · Apr 3 · Apr 19 | Oct 22 · Nov 6 · Nov 22 | 216 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Canoe Brook
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Madison, NJ come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Canoe Brook (station USC00281335, elevation 180 ft), 3.5 mi from Madison. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Madison
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florham Park, NJ | 1.9 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 27 |
| Chatham, NJ | 1.9 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 27 |
| Summit, NJ | 4.3 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 27 |
| Morristown, NJ | 4.3 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 27 |
| New Providence, NJ | 4.3 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 27 |
| Mountainside, NJ | 6.2 mi | Apr 11 | Oct 31 |
| Morris Plains, NJ | 6.2 mi | Apr 17 | Oct 23 |
| Roseland, NJ | 7.5 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 24 |
| Watchung, NJ | 8.1 mi | Apr 11 | Oct 28 |
| Fanwood, NJ | 8.1 mi | Apr 11 | Oct 28 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Madison?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Madison is around April 18. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 6, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 3.
When is the first frost in Madison?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 27. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 11 and a 90% chance by November 10.
Can it frost in Madison after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 30.
What growing zone is Madison?
Madison is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 07940. See growing zones in New Jersey.
More: all New Jersey frost dates · New Jersey growing zones · frost vs. freeze