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Will it freeze in Horace in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 25°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 25°F. Hard freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
7 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 25°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 27°F Hard freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 31°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Horace
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 12, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Fargo 3S. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 2 · May 13 · May 26 | Sep 12 · Sep 24 · Oct 5 | 132 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 21 · May 4 · May 18 | Sep 22 · Oct 2 · Oct 15 | 151 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 10 · Apr 25 · May 9 | Sep 29 · Oct 12 · Oct 26 | 170 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Fargo 3S
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Horace, ND come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Fargo 3S (station USC00322860, elevation 908 ft), 7.4 mi from Horace. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Horace
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Fargo, ND | 6.8 mi | May 4 | Oct 2 |
| Fargo, ND | 8.7 mi | May 4 | Oct 2 |
| Moorhead, MN | 11 mi | May 5 | Oct 3 |
| Wahpeton, ND | 37 mi | May 4 | Oct 3 |
| Detroit Lakes, MN | 50 mi | May 15 | Sep 24 |
| Fergus Falls, MN | 52 mi | May 4 | Oct 5 |
| Valley City, ND | 53 mi | May 13 | Sep 26 |
| Crookston, MN | 71 mi | May 11 | Sep 27 |
| Grand Forks, ND | 81 mi | May 10 | Oct 1 |
| East Grand Forks, MN | 81 mi | May 10 | Oct 1 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Horace?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Horace is around May 4. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 18, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 21.
When is the first frost in Horace?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 2. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 22 and a 90% chance by October 15.
Can it frost in Horace after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 13.
What growing zone is Horace?
Horace is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 4a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −30 to −25°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 58047. See growing zones in North Dakota.
More: all North Dakota frost dates · North Dakota growing zones · frost vs. freeze