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Will it freeze in Fergus Falls in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 27°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 27°F. Hard freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
6 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 27°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 29°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 35°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Fergus Falls
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 15, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Fergus Falls. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 2 · May 14 · May 29 | Sep 13 · Sep 27 · Oct 9 | 134 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 20 · May 4 · May 18 | Sep 22 · Oct 5 · Oct 19 | 152 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 9 · Apr 26 · May 8 | Oct 1 · Oct 15 · Oct 28 | 172 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Fergus Falls
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Fergus Falls, MN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Fergus Falls (station USC00212768, elevation 1,250 ft), 2.0 mi from Fergus Falls. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Fergus Falls
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wahpeton, ND | 25 mi | May 4 | Oct 3 |
| Detroit Lakes, MN | 38 mi | May 15 | Sep 24 |
| Alexandria, MN | 43 mi | May 2 | Oct 8 |
| Morris, MN | 49 mi | May 4 | Oct 1 |
| Moorhead, MN | 51 mi | May 5 | Oct 3 |
| Horace, ND | 52 mi | May 4 | Oct 2 |
| Fargo, ND | 53 mi | May 4 | Oct 2 |
| West Fargo, ND | 56 mi | May 4 | Oct 2 |
| Little Falls, MN | 85 mi | May 4 | Oct 5 |
| Baxter, MN | 86 mi | May 8 | Sep 29 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Fergus Falls?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Fergus Falls is around May 4. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 18, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 20.
When is the first frost in Fergus Falls?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 5. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 22 and a 90% chance by October 19.
Can it frost in Fergus Falls after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 14.
What growing zone is Fergus Falls?
Fergus Falls is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 4a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −30 to −25°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 56537. See growing zones in Minnesota.
More: all Minnesota frost dates · Minnesota growing zones · frost vs. freeze