Checking current alerts… View NWS forecast and alerts.
Will it freeze in Warrensburg in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 31°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 42°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 42°F Above 36°F · Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 31°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 42°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 44°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 45°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Warrensburg
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 31, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Warrensburg 4NW. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 10 · Apr 27 · May 12 | Sep 27 · Oct 10 · Oct 23 | 166 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 31 · Apr 14 · May 4 | Oct 6 · Oct 21 · Nov 3 | 189 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 18 · Apr 3 · Apr 23 | Oct 17 · Oct 31 · Nov 14 | 210 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Warrensburg 4NW
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Warrensburg, MO come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Warrensburg 4NW (station USC00238712, elevation 796 ft), 4.3 mi from Warrensburg. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Warrensburg
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odessa, MO | 21 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 23 |
| Sedalia, MO | 27 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 22 |
| Clinton, MO | 27 mi | Apr 17 | Oct 21 |
| Oak Grove, MO | 27 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 23 |
| Pleasant Hill, MO | 30 mi | Apr 8 | Oct 29 |
| Grain Valley, MO | 32 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Greenwood, MO | 33 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 26 |
| Blue Springs, MO | 34 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Harrisonville, MO | 35 mi | Apr 8 | Oct 29 |
| Lee's Summit, MO | 37 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Warrensburg?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Warrensburg is around April 14. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 4, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 31.
When is the first frost in Warrensburg?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 21. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 6 and a 90% chance by November 3.
Can it frost in Warrensburg after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 27.
What growing zone is Warrensburg?
Warrensburg is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 64093. See growing zones in Missouri.
More: all Missouri frost dates · Missouri growing zones · frost vs. freeze