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Will it freeze in Kirksville in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 28°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 40°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
3 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 40°F Above 36°F · Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 28°F Hard freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 36°F Frost possible · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 41°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 42°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 41°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Kirksville
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 29, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Kirksville. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 17 · May 2 · May 13 | Sep 22 · Oct 7 · Oct 21 | 160 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 7 · Apr 21 · May 5 | Oct 2 · Oct 19 · Oct 31 | 179 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 25 · Apr 10 · Apr 27 | Oct 15 · Oct 29 · Nov 10 | 199 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Kirksville
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Kirksville, MO come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Kirksville (station USC00234544, elevation 970 ft), 0.5 mi from Kirksville. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Kirksville
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macon, MO | 32 mi | Apr 8 | Oct 28 |
| Centerville, IA | 40 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 14 |
| Moberly, MO | 55 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 25 |
| Trenton, MO | 55 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 20 |
| Ottumwa, IA | 58 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 14 |
| Chillicothe, MO | 58 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 21 |
| Keokuk, IA | 63 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 27 |
| Fairfield, IA | 64 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 12 |
| Quincy, IL | 66 mi | Apr 8 | Oct 30 |
| Fort Madison, IA | 71 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 25 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Kirksville?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Kirksville is around April 21. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 5, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 7.
When is the first frost in Kirksville?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 19. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 2 and a 90% chance by October 31.
Can it frost in Kirksville after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 2.
What growing zone is Kirksville?
Kirksville is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 63501. See growing zones in Missouri.
More: all Missouri frost dates · Missouri growing zones · frost vs. freeze