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Will it freeze in Apple Valley in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 31°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 31°F. Freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 31°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 27°F Hard freeze · Partly Cloudy then Areas Of Fog
- Sat, Nov 7 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Apple Valley
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 17, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Rosemount Rsch & Outreach Center. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 29 · May 12 · May 26 | Sep 16 · Sep 28 · Oct 10 | 138 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 19 · May 2 · May 16 | Sep 22 · Oct 5 · Oct 19 | 155 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 8 · Apr 22 · May 7 | Oct 2 · Oct 17 · Oct 31 | 175 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Rosemount Rsch & Outreach Center
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Apple Valley, MN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Rosemount Rsch & Outreach Center (station USC00217107, elevation 945 ft), 5.3 mi from Apple Valley. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Apple Valley
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnsville, MN | 4.3 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 10 |
| Eagan, MN | 5.0 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 18 |
| Lakeville, MN | 5.6 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 10 |
| Farmington, MN | 6.2 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 10 |
| Rosemount, MN | 6.2 mi | May 2 | Oct 5 |
| Bloomington, MN | 8.1 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 18 |
| Savage, MN | 8.1 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 14 |
| Inver Grove Heights, MN | 8.7 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 16 |
| Credit River, MN | 9.3 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 10 |
| Mendota Heights, MN | 9.9 mi | Apr 25 | Oct 12 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Apple Valley?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Apple Valley is around May 2. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 16, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 19.
When is the first frost in Apple Valley?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 5. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 22 and a 90% chance by October 19.
Can it frost in Apple Valley after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 12.
What growing zone is Apple Valley?
Apple Valley is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −20 to −15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 55124. See growing zones in Minnesota.
More: all Minnesota frost dates · Minnesota growing zones · UV index today in Apple Valley · frost vs. freeze