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Will it freeze in Burnsville in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 29°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 33°F. Frost possible.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 29°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
- Sat, Nov 7 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Burnsville
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 22, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Farmington 3 NW. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 23 · May 7 · May 21 | Sep 20 · Oct 2 · Oct 15 | 147 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 12 · Apr 27 · May 10 | Sep 27 · Oct 10 · Oct 25 | 166 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 2 · Apr 15 · Apr 29 | Oct 7 · Oct 22 · Nov 5 | 189 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Farmington 3 NW
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Burnsville, MN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Farmington 3 NW (station USC00212737, elevation 980 ft), 8.5 mi from Burnsville. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Burnsville
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple Valley, MN | 4.3 mi | May 2 | Oct 5 |
| Savage, MN | 4.3 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 14 |
| Bloomington, MN | 5.0 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 18 |
| Lakeville, MN | 6.2 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 10 |
| Eagan, MN | 6.8 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 18 |
| Richfield, MN | 7.5 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 18 |
| Credit River, MN | 7.5 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 10 |
| Prior Lake, MN | 8.1 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 14 |
| Farmington, MN | 9.3 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 10 |
| Edina, MN | 9.3 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 18 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Burnsville?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Burnsville is around April 27. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 10, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 12.
When is the first frost in Burnsville?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 10. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 27 and a 90% chance by October 25.
Can it frost in Burnsville after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 7.
What growing zone is Burnsville?
Burnsville is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −20 to −15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 55337. See growing zones in Minnesota.
More: all Minnesota frost dates · Minnesota growing zones · UV index today in Burnsville · frost vs. freeze