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Will it freeze in Palmer in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Wed, Nov 11: 27°F (Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 PM EST to Thu, Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 60°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 60°F Above 36°F · Chance Light Rain
- Fri, Nov 6 54°F Above 36°F · Light Rain Likely
- Sat, Nov 7 42°F Above 36°F · Light Rain Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 27°F Hard freeze · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Palmer
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 27, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Belchertown. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 30 · May 13 · May 25 | Sep 23 · Oct 4 · Oct 16 | 144 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 21 · May 3 · May 16 | Oct 1 · Oct 14 · Oct 29 | 164 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 7 · Apr 20 · May 4 | Oct 12 · Oct 27 · Nov 9 | 189 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Belchertown
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Palmer, MA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Belchertown (station USC00190562, elevation 550 ft), 6.6 mi from Palmer. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Palmer
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Springfield, MA | 13 mi | May 3 | Oct 8 |
| Chicopee, MA | 14 mi | May 3 | Oct 8 |
| Amherst, MA | 16 mi | May 5 | Oct 8 |
| Southbridge, MA | 17 mi | Apr 25 | Oct 13 |
| Holyoke, MA | 17 mi | May 3 | Oct 8 |
| West Springfield, MA | 18 mi | May 3 | Oct 8 |
| Easthampton, MA | 19 mi | May 3 | Oct 8 |
| Agawam, MA | 20 mi | May 3 | Oct 8 |
| Northampton, MA | 21 mi | May 5 | Oct 8 |
| Westfield, MA | 23 mi | May 3 | Oct 8 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Palmer?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Palmer is around May 3. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 16, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 21.
When is the first frost in Palmer?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 14. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 1 and a 90% chance by October 29.
Can it frost in Palmer after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 13.
What growing zone is Palmer?
Palmer is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 01069. See growing zones in Massachusetts.
More: all Massachusetts frost dates · Massachusetts growing zones · frost vs. freeze