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Will it freeze in Natchitoches in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Natchitoches during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 49°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 49°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 50°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 43°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 41°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 43°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Natchitoches
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 21, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Natchitoches. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 21 · Mar 12 · Apr 2 | Nov 2 · Nov 18 · Dec 5 | 249 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 31 · Feb 28 · Mar 17 | Nov 10 · Dec 1 · Dec 26 | 275 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Jan 7 · Feb 8 · Mar 7 | Nov 23 · Dec 21 · Jan 21 | 310 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Natchitoches
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Natchitoches, LA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Natchitoches (station USC00166582, elevation 130 ft), 2.6 mi from Natchitoches. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Natchitoches
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leesville, LA | 42 mi | Mar 20 | Nov 9 |
| Alexandria, LA | 48 mi | Feb 27 | Nov 27 |
| Pineville, LA | 49 mi | Feb 27 | Nov 27 |
| Grambling, LA | 59 mi | Mar 11 | Nov 16 |
| Ruston, LA | 62 mi | Mar 11 | Nov 16 |
| Minden, LA | 62 mi | Mar 17 | Nov 14 |
| DeRidder, LA | 63 mi | Mar 1 | Nov 25 |
| Bossier City, LA | 63 mi | Feb 28 | Nov 24 |
| Center, TX | 63 mi | Mar 13 | Nov 15 |
| Shreveport, LA | 65 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 18 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Natchitoches?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Natchitoches is around February 28. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 17, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 31.
When is the first frost in Natchitoches?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 1. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 10 and a 90% chance by December 26.
Can it frost in Natchitoches after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 12.
What growing zone is Natchitoches?
Natchitoches is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 20 to 25°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 71457. See growing zones in Louisiana.
More: all Louisiana frost dates · Louisiana growing zones · frost vs. freeze