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Will it freeze in Paola in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 32°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 41°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 38°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 43°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Paola
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 31, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Paola. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 11 · Apr 25 · May 6 | Sep 28 · Oct 13 · Oct 26 | 171 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 31 · Apr 13 · Apr 28 | Oct 8 · Oct 21 · Nov 3 | 191 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 16 · Apr 3 · Apr 18 | Oct 17 · Oct 31 · Nov 14 | 211 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Paola
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Paola, KS come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Paola (station USC00146209, elevation 860 ft), 1.2 mi from Paola. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Paola
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisburg, KS | 11 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 21 |
| Spring Hill, KS | 12 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 24 |
| Gardner, KS | 16 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 24 |
| Olathe, KS | 21 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 29 |
| Ottawa, KS | 22 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 20 |
| Overland Park, KS | 23 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 29 |
| Peculiar, MO | 24 mi | Apr 8 | Oct 29 |
| Belton, MO | 24 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 26 |
| De Soto, KS | 26 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 24 |
| Leawood, KS | 26 mi | Apr 8 | Oct 29 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Paola?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Paola is around April 13. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 28, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 31.
When is the first frost in Paola?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 21. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 8 and a 90% chance by November 3.
Can it frost in Paola after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 25.
What growing zone is Paola?
Paola is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 66071. See growing zones in Kansas.
More: all Kansas frost dates · Kansas growing zones · frost vs. freeze