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Will it freeze in Abilene in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 32°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 35°F. Frost possible.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 32°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 41°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 43°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Abilene
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 2, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Abilene. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 10 · Apr 26 · May 8 | Sep 29 · Oct 14 · Oct 28 | 170 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 30 · Apr 14 · May 1 | Oct 8 · Oct 23 · Nov 5 | 190 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 17 · Apr 2 · Apr 19 | Oct 19 · Nov 2 · Nov 15 | 211 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Abilene
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Abilene, KS come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Abilene (station USC00140010, elevation 1,187 ft), 0.8 mi from Abilene. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Abilene
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junction City, KS | 21 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 26 |
| Salina, KS | 22 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 23 |
| Manhattan, KS | 38 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 19 |
| McPherson, KS | 45 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 24 |
| Newton, KS | 62 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 25 |
| Emporia, KS | 66 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 23 |
| Hutchinson, KS | 70 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 21 |
| Valley Center, KS | 76 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 27 |
| Park City, KS | 77 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 27 |
| El Dorado, KS | 79 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 25 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Abilene?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Abilene is around April 14. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 1, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 30.
When is the first frost in Abilene?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 23. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 8 and a 90% chance by November 5.
Can it frost in Abilene after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 26.
What growing zone is Abilene?
Abilene is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 67410. See growing zones in Kansas.
More: all Kansas frost dates · Kansas growing zones · frost vs. freeze