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Will it freeze in Mount Carmel in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 32°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM CST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 44°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
3 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 44°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 32°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 35°F Frost possible · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 40°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Mount Carmel
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 11, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Mt Carmel. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 2 · Apr 14 · Apr 30 | Oct 8 · Oct 21 · Nov 1 | 186 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 19 · Apr 2 · Apr 17 | Oct 18 · Oct 31 · Nov 14 | 209 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 8 · Mar 22 · Apr 5 | Oct 30 · Nov 11 · Nov 26 | 233 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Mt Carmel
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Mount Carmel, IL come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Mt Carmel (station USC00115888, elevation 430 ft), 0.9 mi from Mount Carmel. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Mount Carmel
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Princeton, IN | 11 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 25 |
| Vincennes, IN | 22 mi | Apr 11 | Oct 26 |
| Olney, IL | 27 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 23 |
| Evansville, IN | 32 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 10 |
| Mount Vernon, IN | 34 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 28 |
| Boonville, IN | 37 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 25 |
| Washington, IN | 37 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 25 |
| Robinson, IL | 41 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 22 |
| Henderson, KY | 42 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 26 |
| Huntingburg, IN | 45 mi | Apr 6 | Oct 30 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Mount Carmel?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Mount Carmel is around April 2. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 17, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 19.
When is the first frost in Mount Carmel?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 31. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 18 and a 90% chance by November 14.
Can it frost in Mount Carmel after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 14.
What growing zone is Mount Carmel?
Mount Carmel is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 62863. See growing zones in Illinois.
More: all Illinois frost dates · Illinois growing zones · frost vs. freeze