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Will it freeze in Capitola in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Capitola during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 50°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM PST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM PST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 50°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 51°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 50°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 52°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 51°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 52°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance Light Rain
- Wed, Nov 11 52°F Above 36°F · Chance Light Rain
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Capitola
Most years have no 28°F hard freeze at Santa Cruz, according to NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals. Check the short-term forecast above during cold snaps.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 4 · Mar 14 · Apr 12 | Nov 7 · Nov 24 · Dec 15 | 255 days |
| 32°F freeze | Dec 25 · Jan 29 · Feb 28 | Nov 23 · Dec 13 · Jan 22 | 323 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 12 · Jan 3 · Jan 31 | Dec 6 · Dec 27 · Jan 27 | 365 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Santa Cruz
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Capitola, CA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Santa Cruz (station USC00047916, elevation 70 ft), 2.6 mi from Capitola. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Capitola
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz, CA | 4.3 mi | Jan 29 | Dec 13 |
| Scotts Valley, CA | 6.2 mi | Mar 25 | Nov 11 |
| Watsonville, CA | 11 mi | Jan 28 | Dec 13 |
| Los Gatos, CA | 17 mi | Feb 2 | Dec 6 |
| Morgan Hill, CA | 21 mi | Feb 24 | Nov 27 |
| Gilroy, CA | 21 mi | Feb 24 | Nov 27 |
| Saratoga, CA | 21 mi | Feb 2 | Dec 6 |
| Campbell, CA | 21 mi | Feb 2 | Dec 6 |
| Marina, CA | 22 mi | Feb 4 | Dec 6 |
| San Jose, CA | 24 mi | Jan 2 | Dec 25 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Capitola?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Capitola is around January 29. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after February 28, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after December 25.
When is the first frost in Capitola?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 13. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 23 and a 90% chance by January 22.
Can it frost in Capitola after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 14.
What growing zone is Capitola?
Capitola is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 95010. See growing zones in California.
More: all California frost dates · California growing zones · frost vs. freeze