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Will it freeze in Essex Junction in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sun, Nov 8: 32°F (Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 PM EST to Mon, Nov 9, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 50°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 50°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers Likely then Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 43°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 37°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 32°F Freeze · Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 30°F Freeze · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Tue, Nov 10 30°F Freeze · Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Rain And Snow Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 24°F Hard freeze · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Essex Junction
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 24, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Essex Junction 1 N. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 1 · May 16 · May 30 | Sep 19 · Oct 1 · Oct 13 | 137 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 21 · May 2 · May 17 | Sep 30 · Oct 11 · Oct 26 | 160 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 9 · Apr 23 · May 5 | Oct 8 · Oct 24 · Nov 7 | 183 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Essex Junction 1 N
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Essex Junction, VT come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Essex Junction 1 N (station USC00432843, elevation 340 ft), 1.2 mi from Essex Junction. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Essex Junction
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winooski, VT | 3.7 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 15 |
| South Burlington, VT | 5.0 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 15 |
| Burlington, VT | 6.2 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 15 |
| Plattsburgh, NY | 22 mi | May 6 | Oct 5 |
| St. Albans, VT | 22 mi | May 1 | Oct 12 |
| Montpelier, VT | 31 mi | May 5 | Oct 9 |
| Barre, VT | 36 mi | May 16 | Sep 29 |
| Rutland, VT | 62 mi | May 15 | Sep 27 |
| Malone, NY | 63 mi | May 6 | Oct 4 |
| Lebanon, NH | 73 mi | May 9 | Oct 6 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Essex Junction?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Essex Junction is around May 2. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 17, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 21.
When is the first frost in Essex Junction?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 11. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 30 and a 90% chance by October 26.
Can it frost in Essex Junction after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 16.
What growing zone is Essex Junction?
Essex Junction is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −20 to −15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 05439. See growing zones in Vermont.
More: all Vermont frost dates · Vermont growing zones · frost vs. freeze