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Will it freeze in Winchester in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Winchester during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 55°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
1 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 55°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 46°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 41°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Winchester
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 9, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Winchester. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 9 · Apr 23 · May 11 | Oct 5 · Oct 18 · Oct 30 | 176 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 30 · Apr 11 · Apr 29 | Oct 14 · Oct 29 · Nov 11 | 200 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 15 · Mar 31 · Apr 12 | Oct 27 · Nov 9 · Nov 25 | 224 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Winchester
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Winchester, VA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Winchester (station USC00449181, elevation 720 ft), 1.6 mi from Winchester. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Winchester
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasburg, VA | 15 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 17 |
| Charles Town, WV | 17 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 22 |
| Front Royal, VA | 17 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 28 |
| Ranson, WV | 18 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 22 |
| Martinsburg, WV | 22 mi | Apr 17 | Oct 23 |
| Purcellville, VA | 25 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 25 |
| Woodstock, VA | 28 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 20 |
| Brunswick, MD | 31 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 18 |
| Leesburg, VA | 34 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 25 |
| Warrenton, VA | 37 mi | Apr 9 | Nov 1 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Winchester?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Winchester is around April 11. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 29, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 30.
When is the first frost in Winchester?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 29. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 14 and a 90% chance by November 11.
Can it frost in Winchester after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 23.
What growing zone is Winchester?
Winchester is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 22601. See growing zones in Virginia.
More: all Virginia frost dates · Virginia growing zones · UV index today in Winchester · frost vs. freeze