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Will it freeze in Jefferson City in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Jefferson City during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 49°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 49°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 43°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 35°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 40°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Jefferson City
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 27, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Jefferson City. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 21 · May 6 · May 21 | Sep 28 · Oct 10 · Oct 22 | 156 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 10 · Apr 24 · May 13 | Oct 6 · Oct 17 · Nov 1 | 175 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 28 · Apr 11 · May 1 | Oct 13 · Oct 27 · Nov 8 | 196 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Jefferson City
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Jefferson City, TN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Jefferson City (station USC00404613, elevation 1,108 ft), 0.6 mi from Jefferson City. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Jefferson City
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morristown, TN | 12 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 28 |
| Sevierville, TN | 17 mi | Apr 6 | Oct 29 |
| Newport, TN | 19 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Pigeon Forge, TN | 23 mi | Apr 17 | Oct 25 |
| Knoxville, TN | 28 mi | Apr 11 | Oct 28 |
| Alcoa, TN | 34 mi | Apr 1 | Nov 2 |
| Clinton, TN | 36 mi | Mar 31 | Nov 4 |
| Middlesborough, KY | 37 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 19 |
| Greeneville, TN | 37 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 22 |
| Maryville, TN | 38 mi | Apr 1 | Nov 2 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Jefferson City?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Jefferson City is around April 24. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 13, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 10.
When is the first frost in Jefferson City?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 17. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 6 and a 90% chance by November 1.
Can it frost in Jefferson City after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 6.
What growing zone is Jefferson City?
Jefferson City is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 5 to 10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 37760. See growing zones in Tennessee.
More: all Tennessee frost dates · Tennessee growing zones · frost vs. freeze