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Will it freeze in Carlisle in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Carlisle during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 54°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
1 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 54°F Above 36°F · Chance Light Rain then Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 45°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 41°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Light Rain then Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 34°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Carlisle
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Carlisle Water Treatment Plant. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 20 · May 3 · May 19 | Sep 25 · Oct 6 · Oct 21 | 155 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 9 · Apr 23 · May 9 | Oct 4 · Oct 18 · Nov 2 | 177 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 28 · Apr 10 · Apr 24 | Oct 14 · Nov 1 · Nov 14 | 202 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Carlisle Water Treatment Plant
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Carlisle, PA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Carlisle Water Treatment Plant (station USC00361920, elevation 430 ft), 1.9 mi from Carlisle. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Carlisle
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mechanicsburg, PA | 11 mi | Apr 9 | Nov 1 |
| Camp Hill, PA | 15 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 23 |
| New Cumberland, PA | 17 mi | Apr 9 | Nov 1 |
| Harrisburg, PA | 17 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 23 |
| Shippensburg, PA | 20 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 24 |
| Steelton, PA | 20 mi | Apr 9 | Nov 1 |
| Middletown, PA | 25 mi | Apr 9 | Nov 2 |
| Gettysburg, PA | 25 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 21 |
| West York, PA | 29 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 19 |
| Hanover, PA | 29 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 20 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Carlisle?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Carlisle is around April 23. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 9, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 9.
When is the first frost in Carlisle?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 18. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 4 and a 90% chance by November 2.
Can it frost in Carlisle after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 3.
What growing zone is Carlisle?
Carlisle is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 17015. See growing zones in Pennsylvania.
More: all Pennsylvania frost dates · Pennsylvania growing zones · frost vs. freeze