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Will it freeze in New Carlisle in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 32°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM EST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 45°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in New Carlisle
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 27, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at New Carlisle. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 20 · May 4 · May 21 | Sep 23 · Oct 5 · Oct 17 | 153 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 10 · Apr 24 · May 10 | Oct 4 · Oct 17 · Oct 29 | 173 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 31 · Apr 12 · Apr 28 | Oct 13 · Oct 27 · Nov 9 | 197 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at New Carlisle
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for New Carlisle, OH come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: New Carlisle (station USC00335786, elevation 874 ft), 0.9 mi from New Carlisle. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near New Carlisle
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huber Heights, OH | 7.5 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 28 |
| Tipp City, OH | 8.7 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 28 |
| Vandalia, OH | 9.9 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 28 |
| Fairborn, OH | 9.9 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 17 |
| Troy, OH | 12 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 23 |
| Riverside, OH | 12 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 25 |
| Springfield, OH | 12 mi | Apr 25 | Oct 19 |
| Dayton, OH | 14 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 25 |
| Beavercreek, OH | 15 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 25 |
| Union, OH | 16 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 28 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in New Carlisle?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in New Carlisle is around April 24. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 10, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 10.
When is the first frost in New Carlisle?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 17. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 4 and a 90% chance by October 29.
Can it frost in New Carlisle after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 4.
What growing zone is New Carlisle?
New Carlisle is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 45344. See growing zones in Ohio.
More: all Ohio frost dates · Ohio growing zones · frost vs. freeze