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Will it freeze in Keene in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Mon, Nov 9: 32°F (Mon, Nov 9, 6:00 PM EST to Tue, Nov 10, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 51°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM EST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 51°F Above 36°F · Light Rain Likely
- Sat, Nov 7 40°F Above 36°F · Light Rain
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 34°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 25°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Thu, Nov 12 24°F Hard freeze · Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain And Snow
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Keene
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 10, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Keene. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 13 · May 27 · Jun 9 | Sep 7 · Sep 21 · Oct 4 | 117 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 30 · May 14 · May 28 | Sep 18 · Oct 1 · Oct 14 | 138 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 21 · May 2 · May 16 | Sep 29 · Oct 10 · Oct 25 | 160 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Keene
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Keene, NH come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Keene (station USC00274399, elevation 511 ft), 1.4 mi from Keene. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Keene
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenfield, MA | 28 mi | May 1 | Oct 11 |
| Claremont, NH | 30 mi | May 14 | Oct 1 |
| Gardner, MA | 30 mi | May 2 | Oct 13 |
| Fitchburg, MA | 35 mi | May 1 | Oct 9 |
| Leominster, MA | 40 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 11 |
| Amherst, MA | 42 mi | May 5 | Oct 8 |
| Concord, NH | 42 mi | May 8 | Oct 3 |
| Manchester, NH | 43 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 11 |
| Nashua, NH | 43 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 8 |
| North Adams, MA | 45 mi | May 10 | Oct 4 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Keene?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Keene is around May 14. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 28, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 30.
When is the first frost in Keene?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 1. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 18 and a 90% chance by October 14.
Can it frost in Keene after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 27.
What growing zone is Keene?
Keene is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −15 to −10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 03431. See growing zones in New Hampshire.
More: all New Hampshire frost dates · New Hampshire growing zones · frost vs. freeze