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Will it freeze in Papillion in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 32°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 37°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
1 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 37°F Above 36°F · Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 42°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 43°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 43°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 44°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Papillion
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 27, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Gretna 4NE. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 16 · May 1 · May 14 | Sep 26 · Oct 8 · Oct 21 | 160 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 5 · Apr 21 · May 4 | Oct 4 · Oct 18 · Oct 31 | 179 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 27 · Apr 10 · Apr 25 | Oct 14 · Oct 27 · Nov 10 | 199 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Gretna 4NE
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Papillion, NE come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Gretna 4NE (station USC00253467, elevation 1,240 ft), 6.0 mi from Papillion. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Papillion
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Vista, NE | 2.5 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 18 |
| Ralston, NE | 4.3 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 18 |
| Gretna, NE | 6.2 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 18 |
| Bellevue, NE | 7.5 mi | Apr 17 | Oct 19 |
| Omaha, NE | 8.1 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 18 |
| Council Bluffs, IA | 14 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 21 |
| Plattsmouth, NE | 14 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 11 |
| Glenwood, IA | 19 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 11 |
| Blair, NE | 27 mi | Apr 22 | Oct 17 |
| Wahoo, NE | 29 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 15 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Papillion?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Papillion is around April 21. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 4, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 5.
When is the first frost in Papillion?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 18. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 4 and a 90% chance by October 31.
Can it frost in Papillion after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 1.
What growing zone is Papillion?
Papillion is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 68046. See growing zones in Nebraska.
More: all Nebraska frost dates · Nebraska growing zones · UV index today in Papillion · frost vs. freeze