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Will it freeze in Natchez in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Natchez during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 49°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 49°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 42°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 43°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 44°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 46°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Natchez
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 22, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Natchez. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 10 · Apr 2 · Apr 19 | Oct 19 · Oct 31 · Nov 14 | 213 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 25 · Mar 16 · Apr 6 | Oct 27 · Nov 9 · Nov 27 | 237 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 7 · Mar 1 · Mar 21 | Nov 5 · Nov 22 · Dec 11 | 264 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Natchez
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Natchez, MS come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Natchez (station USC00226177, elevation 195 ft), 4.2 mi from Natchez. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Natchez
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brookhaven, MS | 55 mi | Mar 17 | Nov 12 |
| McComb, MS | 58 mi | Mar 11 | Nov 18 |
| Tallulah, LA | 61 mi | Mar 2 | Nov 24 |
| Vicksburg, MS | 62 mi | Feb 26 | Nov 22 |
| Pineville, LA | 62 mi | Feb 27 | Nov 27 |
| Zachary, LA | 62 mi | Feb 25 | Nov 26 |
| Alexandria, LA | 66 mi | Feb 27 | Nov 27 |
| Baker, LA | 68 mi | Feb 25 | Nov 26 |
| Central, LA | 71 mi | Feb 25 | Nov 26 |
| Port Allen, LA | 76 mi | Feb 28 | Nov 24 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Natchez?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Natchez is around March 16. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 6, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 25.
When is the first frost in Natchez?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 9. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 27 and a 90% chance by November 27.
Can it frost in Natchez after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 2.
What growing zone is Natchez?
Natchez is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 15 to 20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 39120. See growing zones in Mississippi.
More: all Mississippi frost dates · Mississippi growing zones · frost vs. freeze