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Will it freeze in St. Joseph in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 32°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 41°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
1 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 41°F Above 36°F · Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 40°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 44°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 44°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 45°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in St. Joseph
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 26, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at St Joseph Rosecrans Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 15 · Apr 29 · May 9 | Sep 21 · Oct 5 · Oct 20 | 160 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 5 · Apr 19 · May 3 | Sep 30 · Oct 17 · Oct 30 | 180 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 25 · Apr 9 · Apr 24 | Oct 13 · Oct 26 · Nov 8 | 200 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at St Joseph Rosecrans Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for St. Joseph, MO come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: St Joseph Rosecrans Airport (station USW00013993, elevation 818 ft), 5.5 mi from St. Joseph. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near St. Joseph
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Savannah, MO | 12 mi | Apr 17 | Oct 19 |
| Atchison, KS | 22 mi | Apr 11 | Oct 29 |
| Smithville, MO | 29 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 20 |
| Leavenworth, KS | 30 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 27 |
| Cameron, MO | 31 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 24 |
| Lansing, KS | 36 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 19 |
| Kearney, MO | 37 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 17 |
| Parkville, MO | 38 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 24 |
| Gladstone, MO | 40 mi | Apr 4 | Nov 2 |
| Maryville, MO | 40 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 17 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in St. Joseph?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in St. Joseph is around April 19. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 3, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 5.
When is the first frost in St. Joseph?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 17. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 30 and a 90% chance by October 30.
Can it frost in St. Joseph after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 29.
What growing zone is St. Joseph?
St. Joseph is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 64501. See growing zones in Missouri.
More: all Missouri frost dates · Missouri growing zones · UV index today in St. Joseph · frost vs. freeze