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Will it freeze in Mexico in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 27°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 39°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
3 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 39°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Drizzle then Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 27°F Hard freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 31°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 34°F Frost possible · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 41°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Mexico
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 4, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Mexico. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 7 · Apr 23 · May 7 | Oct 1 · Oct 15 · Oct 27 | 174 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 27 · Apr 11 · Apr 26 | Oct 13 · Oct 25 · Nov 5 | 197 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 15 · Apr 1 · Apr 15 | Oct 24 · Nov 4 · Nov 18 | 218 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Mexico
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Mexico, MO come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Mexico (station USC00235541, elevation 802 ft), 1.2 mi from Mexico. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Mexico
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulton, MO | 22 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 24 |
| Columbia, MO | 29 mi | Apr 5 | Oct 31 |
| Ashland, MO | 31 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Moberly, MO | 35 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 25 |
| Jefferson City, MO | 44 mi | Apr 8 | Oct 31 |
| Hannibal, MO | 46 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 27 |
| Warrenton, MO | 46 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 23 |
| Boonville, MO | 49 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 25 |
| Troy, MO | 50 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 23 |
| Wright City, MO | 50 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 23 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Mexico?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Mexico is around April 11. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 26, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 27.
When is the first frost in Mexico?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 25. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 13 and a 90% chance by November 5.
Can it frost in Mexico after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 23.
What growing zone is Mexico?
Mexico is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 65265. See growing zones in Missouri.
More: all Missouri frost dates · Missouri growing zones · frost vs. freeze