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Will it freeze in Warrenton in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 29°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 41°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
3 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 41°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Drizzle then Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 29°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 31°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 35°F Frost possible · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 40°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 42°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Warrenton
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 2, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Warrenton 1 N. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 11 · Apr 28 · May 14 | Sep 29 · Oct 14 · Oct 25 | 169 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 31 · Apr 14 · May 3 | Oct 9 · Oct 23 · Nov 5 | 191 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 17 · Apr 3 · Apr 18 | Oct 20 · Nov 2 · Nov 18 | 213 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Warrenton 1 N
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Warrenton, MO come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Warrenton 1 N (station USC00238725, elevation 827 ft), 1.1 mi from Warrenton. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Warrenton
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wright City, MO | 5.6 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 23 |
| Troy, MO | 14 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 23 |
| Wentzville, MO | 14 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 26 |
| Lake St. Louis, MO | 19 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 26 |
| Washington, MO | 20 mi | Apr 8 | Oct 25 |
| O'Fallon, MO | 22 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 26 |
| Dardenne Prairie, MO | 24 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 26 |
| Cottleville, MO | 26 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 26 |
| Weldon Spring, MO | 27 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 26 |
| Union, MO | 27 mi | Apr 11 | Oct 23 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Warrenton?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Warrenton is around April 14. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 3, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 31.
When is the first frost in Warrenton?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 23. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 9 and a 90% chance by November 5.
Can it frost in Warrenton after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 28.
What growing zone is Warrenton?
Warrenton is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 63380. See growing zones in Missouri.
More: all Missouri frost dates · Missouri growing zones · frost vs. freeze