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Will it freeze in Ellisville in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Ellisville during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 44°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 44°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Drizzle then Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 42°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 44°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Ellisville
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 3, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at St Louis Sprt Of S L Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 10 · Apr 24 · May 7 | Sep 30 · Oct 14 · Oct 26 | 171 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 28 · Apr 12 · Apr 27 | Oct 11 · Oct 23 · Nov 5 | 193 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 14 · Mar 31 · Apr 17 | Oct 22 · Nov 3 · Nov 18 | 216 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at St Louis Sprt Of S L Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Ellisville, MO come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: St Louis Sprt Of S L Airport (station USW00003966, elevation 462 ft), 5.9 mi from Ellisville. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Ellisville
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ballwin, MO | 1.9 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 29 |
| Wildwood, MO | 4.3 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 23 |
| Manchester, MO | 4.3 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 29 |
| Chesterfield, MO | 5.0 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 29 |
| Valley Park, MO | 5.6 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 29 |
| Town and Country, MO | 6.8 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 29 |
| Eureka, MO | 6.8 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 23 |
| Des Peres, MO | 7.5 mi | Apr 4 | Oct 29 |
| Weldon Spring, MO | 8.7 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 26 |
| Kirkwood, MO | 9.3 mi | Apr 1 | Nov 4 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Ellisville?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Ellisville is around April 12. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 27, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 28.
When is the first frost in Ellisville?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 23. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 11 and a 90% chance by November 5.
Can it frost in Ellisville after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 24.
What growing zone is Ellisville?
Ellisville is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 63011. See growing zones in Missouri.
More: all Missouri frost dates · Missouri growing zones · frost vs. freeze