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Will it freeze in Rochester in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 32°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM EST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 40°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 40°F Above 36°F · Light Rain Likely
- Fri, Nov 6 36°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain
- Sat, Nov 7 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 41°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 34°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Rochester
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 4, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Pontiac Wastewater Plant. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 22 · May 5 · May 22 | Sep 28 · Oct 10 · Oct 23 | 157 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 15 · Apr 26 · May 12 | Oct 7 · Oct 22 · Nov 4 | 177 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 3 · Apr 16 · Apr 30 | Oct 20 · Nov 4 · Nov 17 | 200 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Pontiac Wastewater Plant
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Rochester, MI come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Pontiac Wastewater Plant (station USC00206658, elevation 890 ft), 7.6 mi from Rochester. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Rochester
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rochester Hills, MI | 2.5 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 22 |
| Utica, MI | 6.2 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 24 |
| Auburn Hills, MI | 6.2 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 22 |
| Troy, MI | 7.5 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 22 |
| Sterling Heights, MI | 8.7 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 24 |
| Pontiac, MI | 8.7 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 22 |
| Clawson, MI | 11 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 22 |
| Birmingham, MI | 11 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 22 |
| Madison Heights, MI | 12 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 31 |
| Royal Oak, MI | 12 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 31 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Rochester?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Rochester is around April 26. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 12, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 15.
When is the first frost in Rochester?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 22. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 7 and a 90% chance by November 4.
Can it frost in Rochester after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 5.
What growing zone is Rochester?
Rochester is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 48307. See growing zones in Michigan.
More: all Michigan frost dates · Michigan growing zones · frost vs. freeze