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Will it freeze in Novi in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 32°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM EST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 39°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 39°F Above 36°F · Light Rain Likely
- Fri, Nov 6 35°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain
- Sat, Nov 7 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 34°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Novi
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 27, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Farmington. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 30 · May 13 · May 27 | Sep 23 · Oct 4 · Oct 17 | 144 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 19 · May 1 · May 16 | Oct 1 · Oct 17 · Oct 29 | 165 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 8 · Apr 22 · May 5 | Oct 15 · Oct 27 · Nov 8 | 187 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Farmington
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Novi, MI come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Farmington (station USC00202691, elevation 720 ft), 6.4 mi from Novi. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Novi
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northville, MI | 3.1 mi | May 1 | Oct 17 |
| Wixom, MI | 3.7 mi | May 6 | Oct 12 |
| Walled Lake, MI | 4.3 mi | May 1 | Oct 17 |
| Farmington, MI | 5.6 mi | May 1 | Oct 17 |
| Farmington Hills, MI | 5.6 mi | May 1 | Oct 17 |
| Plymouth, MI | 7.5 mi | May 1 | Oct 17 |
| Livonia, MI | 8.1 mi | May 1 | Oct 17 |
| South Lyon, MI | 8.7 mi | May 5 | Oct 13 |
| Milford, MI | 9.3 mi | May 6 | Oct 12 |
| Southfield, MI | 12 mi | May 1 | Oct 17 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Novi?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Novi is around May 1. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 16, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 19.
When is the first frost in Novi?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 17. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 1 and a 90% chance by October 29.
Can it frost in Novi after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 13.
What growing zone is Novi?
Novi is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 48375. See growing zones in Michigan.
More: all Michigan frost dates · Michigan growing zones · UV index today in Novi · frost vs. freeze