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Will it freeze in Flat Rock in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Flat Rock during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 41°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 41°F Above 36°F · Light Rain Likely
- Fri, Nov 6 36°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain
- Sat, Nov 7 33°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Flat Rock
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Carleton 2W. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 22 · May 6 · May 22 | Sep 23 · Oct 6 · Oct 21 | 153 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 12 · Apr 27 · May 13 | Oct 4 · Oct 20 · Nov 2 | 176 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 31 · Apr 15 · May 2 | Oct 17 · Nov 1 · Nov 14 | 199 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Carleton 2W
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Flat Rock, MI come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Carleton 2W (station USC00201250, elevation 627 ft), 8.8 mi from Flat Rock. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Flat Rock
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Woodhaven, MI | 3.1 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 27 |
| Trenton, MI | 5.0 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 27 |
| Riverview, MI | 6.2 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 27 |
| Southgate, MI | 8.1 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 27 |
| Taylor, MI | 8.7 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 27 |
| Wyandotte, MI | 9.9 mi | May 1 | Oct 15 |
| Romulus, MI | 9.9 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 27 |
| Lincoln Park, MI | 11 mi | May 1 | Oct 15 |
| Allen Park, MI | 12 mi | May 1 | Oct 15 |
| Ecorse, MI | 12 mi | May 1 | Oct 15 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Flat Rock?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Flat Rock is around April 27. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 13, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 12.
When is the first frost in Flat Rock?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 20. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 4 and a 90% chance by November 2.
Can it frost in Flat Rock after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 6.
What growing zone is Flat Rock?
Flat Rock is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 48134. See growing zones in Michigan.
More: all Michigan frost dates · Michigan growing zones · frost vs. freeze