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Will it freeze in Florence in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Florence during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 47°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
1 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 47°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 39°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 40°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Florence
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 3, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Cincinnati Northern Ky Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 14 · Apr 30 · May 17 | Oct 2 · Oct 15 · Oct 26 | 169 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 3 · Apr 18 · May 7 | Oct 12 · Oct 25 · Nov 5 | 188 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 21 · Apr 5 · Apr 23 | Oct 22 · Nov 3 · Nov 16 | 212 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Cincinnati Northern Ky Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Florence, KY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Cincinnati Northern Ky Airport (station USW00093814, elevation 869 ft), 3.7 mi from Florence. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Florence
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elsmere, KY | 2.5 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 25 |
| Union, KY | 3.7 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 25 |
| Erlanger, KY | 4.3 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 25 |
| Edgewood, KY | 5.0 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 25 |
| Villa Hills, KY | 5.6 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 25 |
| Independence, KY | 6.2 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 25 |
| Fort Mitchell, KY | 6.2 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 25 |
| Fort Wright, KY | 6.8 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 25 |
| Covington, KY | 7.5 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 25 |
| Taylor Mill, KY | 8.1 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 25 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Florence?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Florence is around April 18. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 7, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 3.
When is the first frost in Florence?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 25. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 12 and a 90% chance by November 5.
Can it frost in Florence after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 30.
What growing zone is Florence?
Florence is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 41042. See growing zones in Kentucky.
More: all Kentucky frost dates · Kentucky growing zones · UV index today in Florence · frost vs. freeze