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Will it freeze in Independence in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Independence during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 42°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 39°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 43°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Independence
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 8, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Independence. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 2 · Apr 17 · May 1 | Oct 7 · Oct 21 · Nov 1 | 186 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 20 · Apr 5 · Apr 23 | Oct 16 · Oct 31 · Nov 13 | 208 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 7 · Mar 26 · Apr 10 | Oct 26 · Nov 8 · Nov 25 | 228 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Independence
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Independence, KS come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Independence (station USC00143954, elevation 805 ft), 0.9 mi from Independence. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Independence
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coffeyville, KS | 14 mi | Apr 6 | Nov 1 |
| Parsons, KS | 25 mi | Apr 11 | Oct 26 |
| Chanute, KS | 33 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 28 |
| Bartlesville, OK | 37 mi | Apr 11 | Oct 24 |
| Iola, KS | 51 mi | Apr 8 | Oct 26 |
| Miami, OK | 52 mi | Apr 6 | Oct 27 |
| Vinita, OK | 55 mi | Apr 7 | Nov 2 |
| Pittsburg, KS | 57 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 30 |
| Collinsville, OK | 60 mi | Mar 31 | Nov 4 |
| Skiatook, OK | 63 mi | Mar 31 | Nov 4 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Independence?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Independence is around April 5. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 23, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 20.
When is the first frost in Independence?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 31. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 16 and a 90% chance by November 13.
Can it frost in Independence after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 17.
What growing zone is Independence?
Independence is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 67301. See growing zones in Kansas.
More: all Kansas frost dates · Kansas growing zones · frost vs. freeze