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Will it freeze in Manhattan in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 31°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 39°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
3 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 39°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 31°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 32°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Manhattan
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 4, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Joliet Brandon Rd Dam. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 16 · May 1 · May 18 | Oct 2 · Oct 15 · Oct 27 | 166 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 3 · Apr 19 · May 7 | Oct 12 · Oct 25 · Nov 6 | 188 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 22 · Apr 5 · Apr 21 | Oct 23 · Nov 4 · Nov 21 | 211 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Joliet Brandon Rd Dam
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Manhattan, IL come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Joliet Brandon Rd Dam (station USC00114530, elevation 543 ft), 8.6 mi from Manhattan. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Manhattan
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Lenox, IL | 6.2 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 25 |
| Frankfort, IL | 8.1 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 20 |
| Mokena, IL | 9.3 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 20 |
| Joliet, IL | 11 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 25 |
| Wilmington, IL | 12 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 26 |
| Monee, IL | 12 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 20 |
| Lockport, IL | 12 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 22 |
| Crest Hill, IL | 12 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 22 |
| Homer Glen, IL | 13 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 22 |
| Richton Park, IL | 13 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 20 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Manhattan?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Manhattan is around April 19. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 7, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 3.
When is the first frost in Manhattan?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 25. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 12 and a 90% chance by November 6.
Can it frost in Manhattan after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 1.
What growing zone is Manhattan?
Manhattan is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 60442. See growing zones in Illinois.
More: all Illinois frost dates · Illinois growing zones · frost vs. freeze