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Will it freeze in Estherville in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 30°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 30°F. Freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
3 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 30°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 27°F Hard freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 34°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 38°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 37°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Estherville
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 14, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Estherville 4E. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 29 · May 10 · May 24 | Sep 12 · Sep 25 · Oct 7 | 135 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 18 · May 2 · May 14 | Sep 20 · Oct 3 · Oct 17 | 153 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 7 · Apr 22 · May 5 | Sep 30 · Oct 14 · Oct 27 | 173 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Estherville 4E
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Estherville, IA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Estherville 4E (station USC00132724, elevation 1,320 ft), 4.3 mi from Estherville. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Estherville
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spirit Lake, IA | 14 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 11 |
| Spencer, IA | 24 mi | May 1 | Oct 3 |
| Fairmont, MN | 25 mi | Apr 25 | Oct 14 |
| Algona, IA | 38 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 6 |
| Worthington, MN | 42 mi | May 3 | Oct 4 |
| Sheldon, IA | 53 mi | May 5 | Sep 28 |
| Storm Lake, IA | 55 mi | Apr 25 | Oct 13 |
| Cherokee, IA | 58 mi | May 4 | Oct 4 |
| New Ulm, MN | 66 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 7 |
| North Mankato, MN | 67 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 9 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Estherville?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Estherville is around May 2. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 14, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 18.
When is the first frost in Estherville?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 3. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 20 and a 90% chance by October 17.
Can it frost in Estherville after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 10.
What growing zone is Estherville?
Estherville is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −20 to −15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 51334. See growing zones in Iowa.
More: all Iowa frost dates · Iowa growing zones · frost vs. freeze