Checking current alerts… View NWS forecast and alerts.
Will it freeze in Commerce in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Commerce during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 58°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 58°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 48°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 43°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 42°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 44°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Commerce
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 19, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Commerce 4 Nnw. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 28 · Apr 11 · Apr 28 | Oct 15 · Oct 27 · Nov 10 | 199 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 12 · Mar 31 · Apr 14 | Oct 23 · Nov 6 · Nov 23 | 222 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 21 · Mar 16 · Apr 1 | Nov 3 · Nov 19 · Dec 9 | 251 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Commerce 4 Nnw
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Commerce, GA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Commerce 4 Nnw (station USC00092180, elevation 820 ft), 3.4 mi from Commerce. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Commerce
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson, GA | 9.3 mi | Mar 31 | Nov 6 |
| Hoschton, GA | 19 mi | Apr 3 | Nov 7 |
| Athens, GA | 19 mi | Mar 23 | Nov 10 |
| Braselton, GA | 21 mi | Mar 20 | Nov 14 |
| Gainesville, GA | 21 mi | Mar 20 | Nov 14 |
| Winder, GA | 21 mi | Apr 3 | Nov 7 |
| Cornelia, GA | 21 mi | Mar 30 | Nov 6 |
| Oakwood, GA | 24 mi | Mar 20 | Nov 14 |
| Auburn, GA | 25 mi | Apr 3 | Nov 7 |
| Flowery Branch, GA | 25 mi | Mar 20 | Nov 14 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Commerce?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Commerce is around March 31. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 14, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 12.
When is the first frost in Commerce?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 6. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 23 and a 90% chance by November 23.
Can it frost in Commerce after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 11.
What growing zone is Commerce?
Commerce is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 10 to 15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 30529. See growing zones in Georgia.
More: all Georgia frost dates · Georgia growing zones · frost vs. freeze