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Will it freeze in Avenal in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Avenal during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 49°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM PST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM PST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 49°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 52°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 52°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 52°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 52°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 54°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear then Slight Chance Light Rain
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Avenal
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 12, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Kettleman City. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 20 · Mar 17 · Apr 8 | Oct 31 · Nov 15 · Nov 30 | 242 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 21 · Feb 19 · Mar 15 | Nov 14 · Nov 29 · Dec 17 | 281 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 26 · Jan 24 · Feb 23 | Nov 25 · Dec 12 · Jan 15 | 324 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Kettleman City
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Avenal, CA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Kettleman City (station USC00044534, elevation 240 ft), 8.9 mi from Avenal. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Avenal
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huron, CA | 12 mi | Feb 27 | Nov 26 |
| Coalinga, CA | 14 mi | Feb 14 | Nov 30 |
| Lemoore, CA | 25 mi | Feb 24 | Nov 22 |
| Corcoran, CA | 31 mi | Feb 15 | Nov 27 |
| Hanford, CA | 33 mi | Feb 7 | Dec 1 |
| Paso Robles, CA | 41 mi | Mar 15 | Nov 10 |
| Tulare, CA | 45 mi | Jan 23 | Dec 13 |
| Kingsburg, CA | 46 mi | Feb 20 | Nov 23 |
| Selma, CA | 47 mi | Jan 30 | Dec 11 |
| Fowler, CA | 48 mi | Jan 30 | Dec 11 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Avenal?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Avenal is around February 19. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 15, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 21.
When is the first frost in Avenal?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 29. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 14 and a 90% chance by December 17.
Can it frost in Avenal after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 17.
What growing zone is Avenal?
Avenal is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 93239. See growing zones in California.
More: all California frost dates · California growing zones · frost vs. freeze