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Will it freeze in Bay Minette in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Bay Minette during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 60°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 60°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 52°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 46°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 46°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 47°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 48°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 49°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Bay Minette
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 12, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Bay Minette. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 24 · Mar 15 · Apr 3 | Oct 31 · Nov 14 · Dec 1 | 247 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 3 · Feb 28 · Mar 21 | Nov 7 · Nov 25 · Dec 20 | 272 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Jan 13 · Feb 12 · Mar 10 | Nov 19 · Dec 12 · Jan 14 | 305 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Bay Minette
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Bay Minette, AL come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Bay Minette (station USC00010583, elevation 271 ft), 0.6 mi from Bay Minette. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Bay Minette
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spanish Fort, AL | 12 mi | Mar 15 | Nov 19 |
| Loxley, AL | 14 mi | Mar 5 | Nov 23 |
| Satsuma, AL | 16 mi | Feb 21 | Dec 6 |
| Chickasaw, AL | 19 mi | Feb 21 | Dec 6 |
| Saraland, AL | 19 mi | Mar 3 | Nov 25 |
| Daphne, AL | 19 mi | Mar 15 | Nov 19 |
| Prichard, AL | 22 mi | Mar 3 | Nov 25 |
| Robertsdale, AL | 24 mi | Mar 5 | Nov 23 |
| Mobile, AL | 24 mi | Feb 21 | Dec 6 |
| Atmore, AL | 25 mi | Feb 28 | Nov 27 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Bay Minette?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Bay Minette is around February 28. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 21, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 3.
When is the first frost in Bay Minette?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 25. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 7 and a 90% chance by December 20.
Can it frost in Bay Minette after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 15.
What growing zone is Bay Minette?
Bay Minette is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 20 to 25°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 36507. See growing zones in Alabama.
More: all Alabama frost dates · Alabama growing zones · frost vs. freeze