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Will it freeze in Palmer in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 26°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM AKST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM AKST).
Tonight: forecast low 26°F. Hard freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM AKST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM AKST.
7 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 26°F Hard freeze · Patchy Freezing Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 29°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 22°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 22°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 24°F Hard freeze · Slight Chance Light Snow then Mostly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 25°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 24°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Palmer
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 3, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Palmer Municipal Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 9 · May 20 · May 30 | Sep 1 · Sep 14 · Sep 26 | 116 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 24 · May 6 · May 18 | Sep 11 · Sep 25 · Oct 8 | 140 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 12 · Apr 24 · May 6 | Sep 20 · Oct 3 · Oct 19 | 163 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Palmer Municipal Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Palmer, AK come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Palmer Municipal Airport (station USW00025331, elevation 230 ft), 0.7 mi from Palmer. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Palmer
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wasilla, AK | 11 mi | May 16 | Sep 23 |
| Anchorage, AK | 30 mi | May 16 | Sep 20 |
| Kenai, AK | 100 mi | May 24 | Sep 12 |
| Homer, AK | 158 mi | May 10 | Sep 29 |
| Fairbanks, AK | 229 mi | May 16 | Sep 6 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Palmer?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Palmer is around May 6. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 18, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 24.
When is the first frost in Palmer?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around September 25. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 11 and a 90% chance by October 8.
Can it frost in Palmer after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 20.
What growing zone is Palmer?
Palmer is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −20 to −15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 99645. See growing zones in Alaska.
More: all Alaska frost dates · Alaska growing zones · frost vs. freeze