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Will it freeze in Fairbanks in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 16°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM AKST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM AKST).
Tonight: forecast low 16°F. Hard freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM AKST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM AKST.
7 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 16°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 14°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Light Snow
- Sat, Nov 7 12°F Hard freeze · Slight Chance Light Snow
- Sun, Nov 8 8°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 10°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 9°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 6°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Fairbanks
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is September 18, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Aurora. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 14 · May 27 · Jun 8 | Aug 13 · Aug 27 · Sep 8 | 91 days |
| 32°F freeze | May 5 · May 16 · May 29 | Aug 25 · Sep 6 · Sep 20 | 112 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 26 · May 7 · May 19 | Sep 4 · Sep 18 · Sep 30 | 133 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Aurora
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Fairbanks, AK come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Aurora (station USC00500490, elevation 443 ft), 2.4 mi from Fairbanks. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Fairbanks
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmer, AK | 229 mi | May 6 | Sep 25 |
| Wasilla, AK | 232 mi | May 16 | Sep 23 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Fairbanks?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Fairbanks is around May 16. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 29, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after May 5.
When is the first frost in Fairbanks?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around September 6. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by August 25 and a 90% chance by September 20.
Can it frost in Fairbanks after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 27.
What growing zone is Fairbanks?
Fairbanks is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 2a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −50 to −45°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 99703. See growing zones in Alaska.
More: all Alaska frost dates · Alaska growing zones · UV index today in Fairbanks · frost vs. freeze