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Will it freeze in Tumwater in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Tumwater during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 42°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM PST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM PST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Chance Light Rain
- Fri, Nov 6 47°F Above 36°F · Light Rain
- Sat, Nov 7 47°F Above 36°F · Showers And Thunderstorms
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 45°F Above 36°F · Light Rain Likely
- Tue, Nov 10 49°F Above 36°F · Light Rain Likely
- Wed, Nov 11 46°F Above 36°F · Light Rain Likely
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Tumwater
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Olympia Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 30 · May 15 · May 31 | Sep 12 · Sep 28 · Oct 14 | 135 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 11 · Apr 29 · May 15 | Sep 28 · Oct 14 · Nov 1 | 169 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 12 · Apr 5 · Apr 29 | Oct 9 · Nov 1 · Nov 24 | 210 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Olympia Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Tumwater, WA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Olympia Airport (station USW00024227, elevation 188 ft), 1.3 mi from Tumwater. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Tumwater
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia, WA | 3.7 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 14 |
| Lacey, WA | 6.8 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 14 |
| Yelm, WA | 13 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 14 |
| DuPont, WA | 15 mi | Mar 11 | Nov 21 |
| Centralia, WA | 19 mi | Apr 22 | Oct 27 |
| Shelton, WA | 19 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 16 |
| Steilacoom, WA | 20 mi | Mar 11 | Nov 21 |
| Lakewood, WA | 22 mi | Mar 11 | Nov 21 |
| Chehalis, WA | 22 mi | Apr 22 | Oct 27 |
| University Place, WA | 24 mi | Mar 11 | Nov 21 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Tumwater?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Tumwater is around April 29. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 15, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 11.
When is the first frost in Tumwater?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 14. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 28 and a 90% chance by November 1.
Can it frost in Tumwater after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 15.
What growing zone is Tumwater?
Tumwater is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 10 to 15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 98501. See growing zones in Washington.
More: all Washington frost dates · Washington growing zones · UV index today in Tumwater · frost vs. freeze