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Will it freeze in McMinnville in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in McMinnville during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 40°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM PST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM PST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 40°F Above 36°F · Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 47°F Above 36°F · Light Rain Likely then Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 48°F Above 36°F · Light Rain
- Sun, Nov 8 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 46°F Above 36°F · Light Rain Likely
- Tue, Nov 10 48°F Above 36°F · Chance Light Rain
- Wed, Nov 11 45°F Above 36°F · Chance Light Rain
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in McMinnville
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 28, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Mc Minnville. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 12 · Apr 29 · May 15 | Oct 5 · Oct 22 · Nov 9 | 176 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 5 · Apr 5 · Apr 27 | Oct 20 · Nov 7 · Dec 1 | 216 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Jan 3 · Feb 20 · Mar 20 | Nov 5 · Nov 28 · Jan 2 | 283 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Mc Minnville
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for McMinnville, OR come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Mc Minnville (station USC00355384, elevation 155 ft), 1.6 mi from McMinnville. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near McMinnville
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheridan, OR | 13 mi | Apr 16 | Nov 1 |
| Newberg, OR | 13 mi | Mar 21 | Nov 22 |
| Keizer, OR | 17 mi | Apr 3 | Nov 1 |
| Woodburn, OR | 17 mi | Mar 16 | Nov 14 |
| Sherwood, OR | 20 mi | Mar 21 | Nov 22 |
| Dallas, OR | 21 mi | Apr 16 | Nov 1 |
| Salem, OR | 22 mi | Apr 3 | Nov 1 |
| Wilsonville, OR | 22 mi | Mar 18 | Nov 13 |
| Forest Grove, OR | 22 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 26 |
| Cornelius, OR | 22 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 26 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in McMinnville?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in McMinnville is around April 5. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 27, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 5.
When is the first frost in McMinnville?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 7. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 20 and a 90% chance by December 1.
Can it frost in McMinnville after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 29.
What growing zone is McMinnville?
McMinnville is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 15 to 20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 97128. See growing zones in Oregon.
More: all Oregon frost dates · Oregon growing zones · UV index today in McMinnville · frost vs. freeze